BEST MOTION PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Analysis: Unless something crazy happens, TSN is pretty secure. As far as the rest of the field, The Town seems to be on the shakiest ground.

Will win and should win: The Social Network

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network

Analysis: I don’t see any major changes this week, but again, Fincher has had this category in the bag for weeks.

Will win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Robert Duvall in Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours

Analysis: And the Oscar goes to/and the winner is…Colin Firth.

Will win and should win: Colin Firth in The King’s Speech

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Analysis: Michelle Williams enters, but just as a filler.

Will win and should win: Natalie Portman in Black Swan

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale in The Fighter
Matt Damon in True Grit
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

Analysis: Another category that seems pretty certain.

Will win: Christian Bale in The Fighter
Should win: Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis in Black Swan
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit

Analysis: Watch out for Lesley Manville in this category, but I can’t see the Academy turning down Mila Kunis or Hailee Steinfeld for nods.

Will win and should win: Melissa Leo in The Fighter

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Analysis: No change from last week.

Will win and should win: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Analysis: At this point in the game, there’s really not much to say.

Will win and should win: The King’s Speech

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Analysis: Can’t decide between The Illusionist and Tangled. Feeling very indecisive.

Will win and should win: Toy Story 3

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit

Will win and should win: Shutter Island

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

Will win and should win: Black Swan

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Will win and should win: Alice in Wonderland

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for “Superman”
Waste Land
William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe

Will win and should win: Honestly, I have no idea.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Born Sweet
Killing in the Name
Living for 32
Strangers No More
The Warriors of Qiugang

Will win and should win: Honestly, I have no idea.

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Will win: The Social Network
Should win : Inception

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
English title listed at right in parentheses, if applicable.
Biutiful, Mexico
Hævnen, Denmark (In a Better World)
Incendies, Canada
Life, Above All, South Africa
Κυνόδοντας, Greece (Dogtooth)

Will win: Incendies, Canada
Should win: I’m not sure.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The Wolfman

Will win and should win: Alice in Wonderland

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
The Lost Thing
The Silence Beneath the Bark
Urs

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ana’s Playground
Na Wewe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man
Sma Barn, Stora Ord
Wish 143

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Iron Man 2
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“I See the Light” from Tangled
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours
“Shine” from Waiting for “Superman”
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from Burlesque

Will win: “I See the Light” from Tangled
Should win: “If I Rise” from 127 Hours

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy

Will win and should win: TRON: Legacy

TOTAL NOMINATIONS (excludes documentaries-except Waiting for “Superman”, foreign films):
Black Swan – 8
The Fighter – 6
Inception – 10
The Kids Are All Right – 4
The King’s Speech – 10
127 Hours – 3
The Social Network – 8
The Town – 3
Toy Story 3 – 5
True Grit – 10
Get Low – 1
Rabbit Hole – 1
Winter’s Bone – 2
Blue Valentine – 1
Another Year – 1
How to Train Your Dragon – 3
The Illusionist – 1
Alice in Wonderland – 5
Shutter Island – 3
Burlesque – 2
The Tempest – 1
The Wolfman – 1
Iron Man 2 – 2
TRON: Legacy – 2
Waiting for “Superman” – 2