The last time a silent film won Best Picture, my grandfather was 3 years old, the president was Herbert Hoover and the economy was teetering on the brink of disaster. Wings is the first (and only) silent film to win Best Picture. That is, unless Sunrise counts as a co-champion for the first year (it was Best Artistic Production).

BEST MOTION PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Analysis: This week, there are 8 nominees for Best Picture, which is more than enough for 2011. The clear frontrunner is The Artist, a film that doesn’t yet have a wide release in the nether regions of this fine country. (That means I haven’t seen it, being in Missouri and all.) The Descendants is just the kind of film the Academy thinks it should nominate, so it definitely will. Same goes for The Help, which I have not seen. Of those I have seen, Hugo is my favorite, followed by Moneyball. No one wants to nominate or talk about Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which is a shame, but understandable.

My vote: The Artist

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Analysis: All of these directors deserve recognition for their work in 2011, but let’s acknowledge that any nomination for Scorsese or Spielberg would just represent a polite gesture. Of all the years Best Picture could deviate from Director, this could be the year. The only question is whether the recipient will show up.

My vote: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Analysis: DiCaprio is on the shakiest ground right now in this category. Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin are pretty much locks at this point. Gary Oldman could get in for his role in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, but a lackluster showing in the early nominations endangers his chance of getting an Oscar nomination.

My vote: George Clooney in The Descendants

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

Analysis: It didn’t seem like Tilda Swinton had much of a shot, but a nomination for We Need to Talk About Kevin looks fairly conceivable after this week’s Golden Globe and SAG nods. Meryl Streep will return after a one-year absence (what was she doing?) for The Iron Lady, while Michelle Williams gets her third Oscar nomination and Viola Davis gets her third. Glenn Close may get her first nomination since Dangerous Liaisons (1988). Streep probably won’t win again until she’s 80 and playing some small supporting role in a Vietnam-era epic (specific!), but…

My vote: Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Analysis: Jonah Hill. Yes, Mr. Hill will probably pick up an Oscar nod for his role as Billy Beane’s awkward assistant in Moneyball. Albert Brooks, after being snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild on Wednesday, picked up a Golden Globe nomination Thursday for Drive. Brooks isn’t a lock, but Hill is getting there. Branagh and Plummer are locks. Nick Nolte could get his first nomination in 13 years for Warrior.

My vote: Christopher Plummer in Beginners

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer in The Help

Analysis: Jessica Chastain has had a remarkable 2011. Inconspicuously missing from this list is Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids). The Academy *could* go for it, or voters could be really safe and pick Vanessa Redgrave. Well, there is this:

Bejo could benefit from a surge by The Artist, but this race looks like it’s squarely between The Help‘s costars Spencer and Chastain. The latter deserves an Oscar for her transcendent work this year. That’s not how it’s supposed to be, but it’s the way it is.

My vote: Jessica Chastain in The Help

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

Analysis: Moneyball and The Descendants are the frontrunners in this category, but the latter has a better chance with the Academy.

My vote: The Descendants

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult

Analysis: Really tough call, actually. The last film to win Best Picture without winning a writing award was Million Dollar Baby (2004). The last film to win Best Picture without a writing nomination was Titanic (1997)—shocking, I know. It’s weird to think of a mostly silent film nominated for screenplay in this day and age, but it will probably get nominated. It might even win. But Woody Allen’s latest film is really a treasure.

My vote: Midnight in Paris

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss in Boots
Rango
Rio

Analysis: Why do animated movies have to be for kids? Why can’t studios make edgier animated content (more like Waltz with Bashir)? Break the mold, please!

My vote: Rango, but who really cares?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Analysis: All of these scores are pretty solid—even standby John Williams stepped it up a notch with his War Horse composition. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have turned in another very strong original score, though.

My vote: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hello Hello” from Gnomeo & Juliet
“Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs
“Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets
“The Living Proof” from The Help
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets

Analysis: I really don’t mind any of these songs, but I don’t really feel strongly about any of them, either.

My vote: “The Living Proof” from The Help

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In Darkness, Poland
Happy Happy, Norway
Pina, Germany
A Separation, Iran
Where Do We Go Now?, Lebanon

Analysis: This category is normally pretty difficult to pin down, and this year is no exception. A few months ago, Iran looked like a lock with its film A Separation, but I’m not so sure anymore.

My vote: Pina, Germany

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Project Nim
We Were Here

Analysis: I don’t know enough about these films to comment intelligently, but I really did like Bill Cunningham New York. That probably means it either won’t get nominated or won’t win.

My vote: Project Nim (“Because it’s about hippies raising a monkey, you guys? Isn’t that crazy?!?!?”)