UPDATED: 2:40 p.m., Jan. 22.

BEST MOTION PICTURE

The Artist
Thomas Langmann and Emmanuel Montamat, Producers

The Descendants
Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin, Søren Stærmose and Ole Søndberg, Producers

The Help
Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus and Brunson Green, Producers

Hugo
Johnny Depp, Tim Headington, Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers

Midnight in Paris
Letty Aronson, Jaume Roures and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers

Moneyball
Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers

War Horse
Kathleen Kennedy and Steven Spielberg, Producers

Analysis: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is surging, but I’m not entirely sure it will be enough for a Best Picture nomination. Plenty of people like it, though. The Artist still looks like the odds-on favorite, Kim Novak notwithstanding. but I said the same thing about The Social Network at this point last year.

Will win and should win: The Artist

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

The Artist
Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants
Alexander Payne

Hugo
Martin Scorsese

Midnight in Paris
Woody Allen

War Horse
Steven Spielberg

Analysis: Spielberg was snubbed by the DGA, but he might fare better with the Academy. Woody Allen benefits from his DGA nomination, but The Artist still has an advantage, despite what Carlotta Valdes might think. (OK, I’m done.)

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Analysis: DiCaprio is on the shakiest ground in this category, but I can’t see anyone but Clooney (or maybe Dujardin) winning this category.

Will win: George Clooney in The Descendants
Should win: Michael Fassbender in Shame

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

Analysis: It’s just not Oscar season without Streep getting nominated, attending the show and looking happy when she loses.

Will win and should win: Viola Davis in The Help

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Analysis: I’m getting a weird feeling about Jonah Hill in this category. If he’s nominated, I can actually see him winning an Oscar, which doesn’t make much sense, but who says it must? Plummer is a heavy favorite.

Will win and should win: Christopher Plummer in Beginners

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

Analysis: Melissa McCarthy could benefit from winning precursor awards, but there’s a clear frontrunner who has emerged.

Will win: Octavia Spencer in The Help
Should win: Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants
Screenplay by Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash

The Help
Screenplay by Tate Taylor

Hugo
Screenplay by John Logan

Moneyball
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Story by Stan Chervitz

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Written by Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan

Analysis: ELIC is gone, but the category favorite remains the same.

Will win and should win: The Descendants

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Artist
Scenario and dialogue by Michel Hazanavicius

Beginners
Written by Mike Mills

Bridesmaids
Written by Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo

Midnight in Paris
Written by Woody Allen

A Separation
Written by Asghar Farhadi

Analysis: As I’ve said before, this is a pretty difficult category. There’s such a mix here that I can only really rule out Bridesmaids. Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris will beat the other French favorite.

Will win: Midnight in Paris
Should win: A Separation

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Adventures of Tintin
Steven Spielberg

Puss in Boots
Chris Miller

Rango
Gore Verbinski

Analysis: *static*

Will win: Rango
Should win: The Adventures of Tintin

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Jane Eyre
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Will win: Jane Eyre
Should win: Hugo

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Will win and should win: The Tree of Life

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Immortals
Jane Eyre

Will win: Jane Eyre
Should win: Hugo

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Bill Cunningham New York
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
We Were Here

Analysis: Fairly predictable. The Academy usually goes for animal fare.

Will win: Project Nim
Should win: The Interrup…I mean…Paradise Lost 3

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt’s Unfinished Revolution
Incident in New Baghdad
Pipe Dreams
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Will win and should win: I really don’t know.

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
The Artist
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In Darkness, Poland
Bullhead, Belgium
Footnote, Israel
Monsieur Lazhar, Canada
A Separation, Iran

Analysis: This category’s always difficult to predict. Never pick a film that seems too strong (Cyrano de Bergerac (1990), Pan’s Labyrinth (2006), etc.). That could be the case with A Separation, but I’m not so sure it won’t win anyway.

Will win and should win: A Separation, Iran

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

Will win and should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
I Tawt I Taw A Puddy Tat
La Luna
Paths of Hate

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Je Pourrais Être Votre Grand-Mère (I Could Be Your Grandmother)
Pentecost
Raju
The Roar of the Sea
Tuba Atlantic

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Rango
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Adventures of Tintin
John Williams

The Artist
Ludovic Bource

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Hugo
Howard Shore

War Horse
John Williams

Analysis: A really good category this year, actually. John Williams delivers predictably brilliant scores, but let’s continue with one theme, shall we?

Will win: The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Should win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs
Music by Brian Byrne; Lyric by Glenn Close

“Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by David Zippel

“The Living Proof” from The Help
Music by Thomas Newman, Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Damon Thomas
Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Damon Thomas

“Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets
Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie

“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets
Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie

Analysis: An interesting category, actually. The Muppets could return to the Oscar stage for the first time in decades.

Will win and should win: “Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
The Tree of Life

TOTAL NOMINATIONS (excludes documentaries, short films, etc.):
The Artist – 10
Hugo – 9
The Help – 6
War Horse – 6
The Descendants – 5
Moneyball – 5
The Adventures of Tintin – 4
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – 4
Albert Nobbs – 3
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 – 3
Midnight in Paris – 3
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol – 3
Beginners – 2
Bridesmaids – 2
Captain America: The First Avenger – 2
Drive – 2
The Iron Lady – 2
Jane Eyre – 2
The Muppets – 2
My Week with Marilyn – 2
Rango – 2
A Separation – 2
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – 2
Transformers: Dark of the Moon – 2
The Tree of Life – 2
Anonymous – 1
Immortals – 1
J. Edgar – 1
Shame – 1
We Need to Talk About Kevin – 1
Warrior – 1

THE NOMINEES

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

50/50
Written by Will Reiser

Bridesmaids
Written by Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig

Midnight in Paris
Written by Woody Allen

Win Win
Screenplay by Tom McCarthy
Story by Tom McCarthy and Joe Tiboni

Young Adult
Written by Diablo Cody

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants
Screenplay by Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian

The Help
Screenplay by Tate Taylor

Hugo
Screenplay by John Logan

Moneyball
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Story by Stan Chervin

So—how does this affect the writing categories for the Academy Awards? Let’s take a look at the last 16 seasons (1995-2010):

1995

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Braveheart
Academy: The Usual Suspects

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Sense and Sensibility
Academy: Sense and Sensibility

1996

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Fargo
Academy: Fargo

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Sling Blade
Academy: Sling Blade

1997

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: As Good as It Gets
Academy: Good Will Hunting

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: L.A. Confidential
Academy: L.A. Confidential

1998

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Shakespeare in Love
Academy: Shakespeare in Love

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Out of Sight
Academy: Gods and Monsters

1999

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: American Beauty
Academy: American Beauty

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Election
Academy: The Cider House Rules

2000

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: You Can Count on Me
Academy: Almost Famous

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Traffic
Academy: Traffic

2001

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Gosford Park
Academy: Gosford Park

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: A Beautiful Mind
Academy: A Beautiful Mind

2002

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Bowling for Columbine
Academy: Talk to Her

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: The Hours
Academy: The Pianist

2003

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Lost in Translation
Academy: Lost in Translation

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: American Splendor
Academy: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Academy: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Sideways
Academy: Sideways

2005

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Crash
Academy: Crash

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Brokeback Mountain
Academy: Brokeback Mountain

2006

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Little Miss Sunshine
Academy: Little Miss Sunshine

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: The Departed
Academy: The Departed

2007

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Juno
Academy: Juno

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: No Country for Old Men
Academy: No Country for Old Men

2008

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Milk
Academy: Milk

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Slumdog Millionaire
Academy: Slumdog Millionaire

2009

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: The Hurt Locker
Academy: The Hurt Locker

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: Up in the Air
Academy: Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

2010

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WGA: Inception
Academy: The King’s Speech

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WGA: The Social Network
Academy: The Social Network

Surprisingly, the Academy gets it “right” sometimes, and the WGA doesn’t (see 1995, for example).

So it does matter which films get nominated for the WGAs, but in all likelihood, it’s going to be The Artist and The Descendants at the Oscars.

Here are this week’s predictions, complete with credits so any potential nominees reading this (riiiiight) will feel an undue sense of accomplishment.

BEST MOTION PICTURE

The Artist
Thomas Langmann and Emmanuel Montamat, Producers

The Descendants
Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers

The Help
Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus and Brunson Green, Producers

Hugo
Johnny Depp, Tim Headington, Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers

Midnight in Paris
Letty Aronson, Jaume Roures and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers

Moneyball
Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers

War Horse
Kathleen Kennedy and Steven Spielberg, Producers

Analysis: Having seen all but one of these films, I must say this is a pretty weak field for Best Picture. The Tree of Life exits the field, but it could reenter before all of the ballots get counted. War Horse is the most baity film I’ve ever seen. Ever. It’s almost too much to bear. It’s beautifully polished, though.

My vote: The Artist

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

The Artist
Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants
Alexander Payne

Hugo
Martin Scorsese

The Tree of Life
Terrence Malick

War Horse
Steven Spielberg

Analysis: Despite the expanded Best Picture field, this year could yield an increasing rarity—a Directing nominee without a corresponding Picture nomination. The last time that happened was for Julian Schnabel and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, one of my favorite films of the 2000s. Terrence Malick deserves a nomination—no—he deserves an Oscar for his work on The Tree of Life. Will that happen? Not likely.

My vote: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Analysis: Depending on how well The Artist does in precursor awards, Dujardin could pass Clooney as the frontrunner for Best Actor. I wouldn’t bet on it at this point, though. This could be one of The Descendants‘ only Oscars.

My vote: George Clooney in The Descendants

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

Analysis: Streep’s not going to win this year, either.

My vote: Viola Davis in The Help

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Analysis: Jonah Hill stays in the mix because Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is tanking with critics, taking down the venerable Max von Sydow with it. The Academy isn’t always sympathetic to the oldest nominees, even though it can be a lifetime achievement award. For example: Peter O’Toole (who received an honorary Oscar in 2003 and lost a competitive one in 2007), Lauren Bacall (Juliette Binoche deserved it), Hal Holbrook, Gloria Stuart, etc.

My vote: Albert Brooks in Drive

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

Analysis: No real change from last week. Chastain is still the favorite.

My vote: Jessica Chastain in The Help

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants
Screenplay by Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash

Drive
Screenplay by Hossein Amini

Hugo
Screenplay by John Logan

Moneyball
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Story by Stan Chervitz

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan

Analysis: The Help and ELIC exit; Drive and TTSS enter.

My vote: The Descendants

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Artist
Scenario and dialogue by Michel Hazanavicius

Beginners
Written by Mike Mills

Bridesmaids
Written by Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo

Midnight in Paris
Written by Woody Allen

Win Win
Screenplay by Tom McCarthy
Original story by Tom McCarthy and Joe Tiboni

Analysis: As I’ve said before, this is a pretty difficult category. There’s such a mix here that I can only really rule out Bridesmaids. Oh, who am I kidding? The Artist is going to destroy everyone.

My vote: The Artist

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Adventures of Tintin
Steven Spielberg

Rango
Gore Verbinski

Rio
Carlos Saldanha

Analysis: *static*

My vote: The Adventures of Tintin

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Artist
Ludovic Bource

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Hugo
Howard Shore

The Tree of Life
Alexandre Desplat

War Horse
John Williams

Analysis: A really good category this year, actually. John Williams delivers a predictably brilliant score for War Horse, but let’s continue with one theme, shall we?

My vote: The Artist, Ludovic Bource

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by David Zippel

“Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs
Music by Brian Byrne; Lyric by Glenn Close

“Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets
Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie

“The Living Proof” from The Help
Music by Thomas Newman, Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Damon Thomas
Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Damon Thomas

“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets
Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie

Analysis: This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is not the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

My vote: “Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In Darkness, Poland
Footnote, Israel
Le Havre, Finland
Monsieur Lazhar, Canada
A Separation, Iran

Analysis: When in doubt, never pick the French (or French-sounding) films.

My vote: In Darkness, Poland

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Project Nim
We Were Here

Analysis: It’s an outrage that The Interrupters wasn’t selected for the shortlist. What’s the deal?

My vote: Project Nim

That’s it for this installment of my crazy Oscar ramblings.

Thoughts?

BEST MOTION PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Analysis: This week, there are 8 nominees for Best Picture, which is more than enough for 2011. The clear frontrunner is The Artist, a film that doesn’t yet have a wide release in the nether regions of this fine country. (That means I haven’t seen it, being in Missouri and all.) The Descendants is just the kind of film the Academy thinks it should nominate, so it definitely will. Same goes for The Help, which I have not seen. Of those I have seen, Hugo is my favorite, followed by Moneyball. No one wants to nominate or talk about Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which is a shame, but understandable.

My vote: The Artist

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Analysis: All of these directors deserve recognition for their work in 2011, but let’s acknowledge that any nomination for Scorsese or Spielberg would just represent a polite gesture. Of all the years Best Picture could deviate from Director, this could be the year. The only question is whether the recipient will show up.

My vote: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

Analysis: DiCaprio is on the shakiest ground right now in this category. Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin are pretty much locks at this point. Gary Oldman could get in for his role in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, but a lackluster showing in the early nominations endangers his chance of getting an Oscar nomination.

My vote: George Clooney in The Descendants

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

Analysis: It didn’t seem like Tilda Swinton had much of a shot, but a nomination for We Need to Talk About Kevin looks fairly conceivable after this week’s Golden Globe and SAG nods. Meryl Streep will return after a one-year absence (what was she doing?) for The Iron Lady, while Michelle Williams gets her third Oscar nomination and Viola Davis gets her third. Glenn Close may get her first nomination since Dangerous Liaisons (1988). Streep probably won’t win again until she’s 80 and playing some small supporting role in a Vietnam-era epic (specific!), but…

My vote: Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Analysis: Jonah Hill. Yes, Mr. Hill will probably pick up an Oscar nod for his role as Billy Beane’s awkward assistant in Moneyball. Albert Brooks, after being snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild on Wednesday, picked up a Golden Globe nomination Thursday for Drive. Brooks isn’t a lock, but Hill is getting there. Branagh and Plummer are locks. Nick Nolte could get his first nomination in 13 years for Warrior.

My vote: Christopher Plummer in Beginners

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer in The Help

Analysis: Jessica Chastain has had a remarkable 2011. Inconspicuously missing from this list is Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids). The Academy *could* go for it, or voters could be really safe and pick Vanessa Redgrave. Well, there is this:

Bejo could benefit from a surge by The Artist, but this race looks like it’s squarely between The Help‘s costars Spencer and Chastain. The latter deserves an Oscar for her transcendent work this year. That’s not how it’s supposed to be, but it’s the way it is.

My vote: Jessica Chastain in The Help

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

Analysis: Moneyball and The Descendants are the frontrunners in this category, but the latter has a better chance with the Academy.

My vote: The Descendants

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult

Analysis: Really tough call, actually. The last film to win Best Picture without winning a writing award was Million Dollar Baby (2004). The last film to win Best Picture without a writing nomination was Titanic (1997)—shocking, I know. It’s weird to think of a mostly silent film nominated for screenplay in this day and age, but it will probably get nominated. It might even win. But Woody Allen’s latest film is really a treasure.

My vote: Midnight in Paris

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss in Boots
Rango
Rio

Analysis: Why do animated movies have to be for kids? Why can’t studios make edgier animated content (more like Waltz with Bashir)? Break the mold, please!

My vote: Rango, but who really cares?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Analysis: All of these scores are pretty solid—even standby John Williams stepped it up a notch with his War Horse composition. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have turned in another very strong original score, though.

My vote: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hello Hello” from Gnomeo & Juliet
“Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs
“Life’s A Happy Song” from The Muppets
“The Living Proof” from The Help
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets

Analysis: I really don’t mind any of these songs, but I don’t really feel strongly about any of them, either.

My vote: “The Living Proof” from The Help

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In Darkness, Poland
Happy Happy, Norway
Pina, Germany
A Separation, Iran
Where Do We Go Now?, Lebanon

Analysis: This category is normally pretty difficult to pin down, and this year is no exception. A few months ago, Iran looked like a lock with its film A Separation, but I’m not so sure anymore.

My vote: Pina, Germany

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Project Nim
We Were Here

Analysis: I don’t know enough about these films to comment intelligently, but I really did like Bill Cunningham New York. That probably means it either won’t get nominated or won’t win.

My vote: Project Nim (“Because it’s about hippies raising a monkey, you guys? Isn’t that crazy?!?!?”)

BEST MOTION PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Albert Brooks in Drive
Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Ides of March
Ben Kingsley in Hugo
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Adventures of Tintin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
Rio
Winnie the Pooh

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger

“The Living Proof” from The Help

“Life’s a Happy Song” from The Muppets

“Pictures in My Mind” from The Muppets
No video available.
“So Long” from Winnie the Pooh

BEST MOTION PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
The Ides of March
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt in Moneyball

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Albert Brooks in Drive
Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Ides of March
Ben Kingsley in Hugo
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
Rio

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Star Spangled Man” from Captain America: The First Avenger

“The Living Proof” from The Help

“Life’s a Happy Song” from The Muppets

“Pictures in My Mind” from The Muppets
No video available.
“So Long” from Winnie the Pooh

I wonder if the response to Katrina might have been different had something like it occurred in 2011. Not a hurricane, per se. But any sort of disaster. Imagine a world with Twitter on Sept. 11, 2001. Well, someone already did. The GOOD article was written after Osama bin Laden was killed in early May, when mainstream media outlets provided wall-to-wall coverage of the event for days and days. The death of Osama bin Laden is not analogous to 9/11, though, in terms of the media coverage. Had people been tweeting 10 years ago during the attacks, the diversity and the historicity of the tweets just wouldn’t compare.

But consider just how far we’ve come and how the past 10 years have changed the way we communicate and think about our place in the world.

In many ways, people in the developed world are more connected than in 2001. Ten years ago—even five years ago—my family still subscribed to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. I probably knew much more about my local community than I do today. Between the fall of the Soviet Union and until the 9/11 attacks, I’m not sure many Americans really cared about what happened overseas. I grew up during a mostly peaceful time in American history (save for the ugliness of Waco and Oklahoma City).

Our world (at least my perception of it) in 2011 is increasingly volatile. The status quo is changing, and everyone (or so they would have us believe) has a say in what gets covered. A tweet from Wikileaks, for example, criticizes the media’s barrage of Irene coverage. I really don’t agree with that, especially considering the fact that 10 people have now died because of it.

Journalists should attempt to cover as many stories of interest as possible. Last weekend and earlier this week, Libya dominated the headlines. As I’ve been doing for the past couple of years, I started following the news coverage on Twitter. In the past, I might not have even cared. But times change—quickly.

It is dangerous, though, to watch the news from an emotional distance. Very few events can actually stir a usually unreceptive, unaffected audience. The 9/11 attacks and FEMA’s lack of punctuality in the wake of Katrina are two such events. Here, reports showed the humanity of the tragedies.

This has been a year of uprisings, regime changes, disasters and bold headlines. It’s almost too much, this barrage of supposedly world-changing events. There’s no time to make sense of one thing before moving on to something completely different.

There’s a certain blindness to living in the present.

The press release said the Academy reviewed voting data from 2001 to 2008 (meaning from A Beautiful Mind to Slumdog Millionaire, two films that probably shouldn’t have won) and found some years where this would have meant excluding films under the new system. Thus,  “If this system had been in effect from 2001 to 2008 (before the expansion to a slate of 10), there would have been years that yielded 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 nominees.”

What would these nominees have been? Why just 2001 to 2008? Why not extend the analysis to 2009 and 2010? Because it would have left off The Blind Side? Or an independent picture like Winter’s Bone? Well, in that case…

I have been following the Oscar race closely for more than a decade, and I know that in some years, certain films have been left out in the cold. I also know that some films got in that didn’t deserve to be there, not to mention some years where fewer nominees would have sufficed.

From 2001 to 2010, here are the true Best Picture nominees:

Please note that I am not starting from scratch, but rather adding and subtracting where I find it necessary. Some years are more inclusive, some years much less. Please also note that I am not picking what I personally feel is the best, but rather what the Academy would have chosen under the new (2011) format. Okay, so maybe I couldn’t resist in a few places. Some films (even some winners) shouldn’t have even seen the light of day.

2001

• Gosford Park
• In the Bedroom
• The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
• Moulin Rouge
• Mulholland Drive
• Shrek

2002

• Adaptation.
  
• Bowling for Columbine
  
• Gangs of New York
• The Hours
• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
• My Big Fat Greek Wedding
• The Pianist

2003

• City of God
• Finding Nemo
• The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
• Lost in Translation

2004

• The Aviator
• Closer
• Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
• Hotel Rwanda
• The Incredibles
• Kinsey
• Sideways

2005

• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• Munich

2006

• Babel
  
• Blood Diamond
  
• The Departed
• An Inconvenient Truth
• The Last King of Scotland
• Letters from Iwo Jima
• Little Children
• Little Miss Sunshine

2007

• Atonement
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• There Will Be Blood

2008

• The Dark Knight
• Man on Wire
• WALL-E

2009

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
• A Serious Man
• Up

2010

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The King’s Speech
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter’s Bone

The mystery that had dragged on for nearly a decade had ended in the heretofore unheard-of Abbottabad, Pakistan. And there I was, back in my suburban St. Louis home, sans ABC BlackBerry, in the wilderness. To be quite honest, I thought Osama bin Laden had slipped away into the mountains in late 2001 after the Battle of Tora Bora, never to plot mass destruction on the scale of 9/11 ever again.

As the years progressed, I began to think he was living in a small town along the AfPak border. As it turns out, he was living in a small town, just not on the Afghan border. No, there he lived for at least five and a half years in plain sight, seemingly undetected by the ISI or anyone else. Since Osama slipped away in December 2001, the following things happened: the U.S. invaded Iraq, the U.S. declared victory in Iraq, the U.S. declared combat ops over in late August 2010, the U.S. began a campaign in northwest Pakistan, among other things.

So there I sat, watching coverage on all of the major news networks, recognizing many of the faces, from ABC and elsewhere. I guess it just wasn’t my story to cover this time around. It was an extraordinary experience in Washington, though, albeit one I find hard to put into words. Words do fail.